Trump’s 17 Times: Why Fed Won’t Lower Rates Despite Pressure

The Great Rate War: Trump vs. Powell

I’ve been tracking central bank psychology for years—mostly through chain data and volatility patterns—but this isn’t about BTC or DeFi. It’s about power. And right now, Donald Trump is shouting into the void with 17 public demands to lower interest rates. “Too Late Mr. Powell,” he says—again and again.

It’s not just rhetoric. It’s strategy.

Why Trump Wants Lower Rates (and Why He Shouldn’t)

Let me be clear: I’m not defending Powell’s pace—or his tone—but let’s talk cold facts.

Trump pushes for cuts because:

• His tariffs are inflating costs, but he refuses to back down.
• The U.S. debt service hits $776B in just eight months—yes, that number.
• He wants cheap money to boost markets ahead of 2028.

But here’s where it gets interesting: lowering rates now when inflation is still ticking at 3%+ could trigger another cycle of asset bubbles—not unlike what we saw in 2021–2023.

And yes, inflation remains a key concern—even if food prices dipped last month. Core services inflation? Still above target.

What Powell Is Actually Saying (Behind Closed Doors)

The Fed isn’t blind to pressure—but it sees deeper than headlines.

According to recent FOMC minutes:

• Unemployment holds at 4.5%
• Wage growth stays strong at ~4% YoY
• GDP shrank slightly Q1 (-0.3%), but that was due to inventory swings—not demand collapse

Powell knows this: The economy isn’t collapsing—it’s adjusting.

He also knows cutting too soon risks rekindling inflation expectations—a classic central banking trap we all learned from Volcker to Yellen.

Markets Are Betting on September… But Not July ét al?

The market doesn’t trust political noise—it trusts data. The CME FedWatch Tool shows:

• 95% chance of no cut in July
• 83% chance of first cut in September
• One more in December if labor softens

This aligns with my own model-based forecast using real-time jobless claims, ISM PMI divergence, and Treasury yield curve inversion signals — all pointing toward cautious optimism by Q3.

Why? Because timing matters more than magnitude in monetary policy—the true art lies in when, not how much you move next time.