Should You Short Circle (CRCL) After ARK's $100M Profit-Taking? A Crypto Analyst's Cold Take
The $484B Paradox: Circle’s Gravity-Defying Rally
Watching Circle Internet Financial (CRCL) surge from \(31 to \)199.59 feels like observing Bitcoin in 2017 - if BTC had BlackRock’s blessing and SEC compliance paperwork. The numbers border on absurdity:
- 500% gain since June 5 IPO
- 72.53B float valuation with only 17.94% shares circulating (hello, WLD-style volatility)
- ARK Invest just banked \(96M profit while sitting on \)371M remaining position
Why Crypto Traders Keep Missing the Boat
Fascinating schism emerging:
- Crypto-natives see overvaluation: “USDC’s \(600B market cap vs CRCL's \)484B? Math broke.”
- Equity traders see Web3 Visa: “200B TAM! Digital dollar play!”
Result? A perfect storm of FOMO. As Deribit’s Lin observed: “Knowing Circle’s razor-thin stablecoin margins became a curse - we couldn’t unsee the red flags.”
The Lockup Loophole No One’s Discussing
Key difference from COIN’s 2021 IPO:
- 180-day insider lockup prevents employee dumping
- Hedge funds forced to chase momentum (see 5%+ short borrow fees)
To Short or Not to Short? My Quant Model Says…
Running my firm’s liquidation risk algorithm:
| Metric | Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|---|
| P/S ratio | 18x | 4x |
| USDC growth | 12% QoQ | -5% QoQ |
| Fed rate cut | Tailwind | Margin crush |
Verdict? Technically overvalued, but as Arthur Hayes warned: “Never short a narrative asset during regulatory tailwinds.” This isn’t about fundamentals - it’s about being the only compliant stablecoin play Wall Street understands.
Pro tip: Watch Coinbase’s OI/volume ratios. When COIN traders start using CRCL as beta hedge, we’ll see true fireworks.
QuantSurfer
Hot comment (3)
CRCL: Ang Crypto Rollercoaster ng Pinas!
Grabe ang CRCL - parang jeepney na walang preno! Mula \(31 biglang \)199? Kahit si BlackRock ata nagulat. Pero teka: bakit parang lottery ticket ito?
500% gain in 1 month - mas matindi pa sa sabong! ARK Invest kumita ng $96M - pero may tira pang $371M. Game ba ‘to o patibong?
Pro Tip sa Mga Kapatid:
Wag mag-short habang nagfi-fiesta ang Wall Street. Tulad ng sabi ni Lolo Coin: “Pag compliant na stablecoin, kahit overvalued, party pa rin!”
Pustahan tayo sa comments - CRCL to the moon o magiging memecoin lang?
¡CRCL: la montaña rusa que nadie sabe si subirá o bajará! 🎢
Viendo el rally de Circle (CRCL), hasta Bitcoin se ruboriza. ¿500% de ganancia desde junio? ¡Hasta las stablecoins necesitan terapia! 😂
Los criptonativos dicen: “¡Es una burbuja!” Los de Wall Street: “¡Es el nuevo Visa digital!” Y mientras tanto, ARK se lleva $96M de ganancia… ¿Será momento de hacer short? Mi modelo cuantitativo dice: “Depende, pero mejor no juegues contra la FOMO.”
Pro tip: Si vas a shortear CRCL, asegúrate de tener un colchón para los nervios. ¡El mercado es más impredecible que el clima en Buenos Aires! 🌦️
¿Tú qué opinas? ¿Sube o baja? ¡Comenta y debatamos!
CRCL tăng như tên lửa, nhưng liệu có phải là bong bóng?
Nhìn CRCL từ \(31 lên gần \)200 mà thấy giống Bitcoin năm 2017 quá! Nhưng khác là CRCL có ‘bảo kê’ của BlackRock và SEC. ARK Invest vừa chốt lời \(96M, nhưng vẫn còn \)371M trong túi - họ biết điều gì mà ta không biết?
Dân crypto thì hoang mang: USDC \(600B market cap mà CRCL \)484B? Toán học hỏng rồi! Dân chứng khoán thì hào hứng: Visa phiên bản Web3 đây rồi!
180-day insider lockup khiến hedge funds phải FOMO, short borrow fees lên 5%+. Theo model của tôi: về cơ bản thì overvalued, nhưng như Arthur Hayes nói - ‘Đừng short một asset có narrative đẹp khi regulatory tailwinds thổi’.
Các ông nghĩ sao? Mua vào hay short tiếp đây? 😏
